Sanders is leading three-way race, ABC News analysis shows

New Hampshire primary live updates: Sanders is leading three-way race, ABC News analysis shows originally appeared on abcnews.go.com

The first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary heated up on Tuesday — to potentially become the first decisive outcome this cycle after the tumultuous Iowa caucuses — and the candidates are making their final pleas to voters across the state to outline their vision for the country, rebuke President Donald Trump, call for party unity and make more overt contrasts with their rivals.

MORE: 2020 New Hampshire primary election results

While former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders battle it out for the top spot in the primary, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden are jockeying for a last-minute boost, as both have found themselves in a tight race for third and fourth place in recent polling.

Here’s how the day is unfolding. Please refresh for updates.

8:12 p.m.: Former Gov. Bill Weld, Trump’s primary challenger, to continue to Super Tuesday.

Former Gov. Bill Weld, the last standing long-shot Republican primary challenger to President Donald Trump, will move “on to Super Tuesday” regardless of tonight’s results, communications director Joe Hunter tells ABC News.

ABC News’ Will Steakin reported.

8:17 p.m.: Klobuchar looks ahead of New Hampshire.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar released two ads in Nevada before the results in New Hampshire were even finalized.

The ads are set to air in the Las Vegas and Reno markets Wednesday and highlight issues critical to both liberal and moderate democrats, such as healthcare, prescription drugs and the economy.

ABC News’ Lissette Rodriguez reported.

8:12 p.m.: Klobuchar leads with women, based on preliminary exit poll results.

There’s a substantial gender gap in the New Hampshire results; Sanders does 9 points better with men than women; Klobuchar, 9 points better with women than men. Buttigieg, true to form, ran about evenly in both groups.

Klobuchar prevailed among college-educated women – winning 32 percent, followed by 22 percent for Buttigieg, 19 percent for Sanders and just 13 percent for Warren. Non-college men backed Sanders with 35 percent; Buttigieg came distantly second in this group.

As noted, Sanders, for all his strengths, has a “too liberal” problem – 52 percent of New Hampshire voters described him this way in preliminary exit poll results. They went for Klobuchar (39 percent) and Buttigieg (29 percent), with just 12 percent backing Biden.

Biden also had trouble among the few nonwhites in the electorate, a group whose support he’s been banking on. Sanders won 27 percent of this group, Biden 21 percent, with Buttigieg and Klobuchar trailing at 13 percent apiece. One reason is that nonwhites were somewhat younger than the whites who turned out, and, as noted, young voters favored Sanders.

Health care was the top-cited issue among four that were tested, and Sanders won those who picked it. He also won voters focused on income inequality. Those who care most on climate change and foreign policy tilted toward Buttigieg. Klobuchar won similar levels of support across these issue groups.

ABC News’ Polling Unit Director Gary Langer reported.

8:10 p.m.: Buttigieg supporters watch results pour in.

Supporters for Buttigieg watch as preliminary results for the New Hampshire Democratic primary come in at a rally in Nashua, New Hampshire.

PHOTO: Supporters watch results come in for Democratic presidential candidate and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at his New Hampshire primary night rally in Nashua, N.H., Feb. 11, 2020. (Jim Bourg/Reuters)

8:07 p.m.: Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang ending his presidential bid /h3>

Entrepreneur Andrew Yang has ended his bid for the presidency.

Yang was widely regarded as a breakthrough candidate who surpassed the expectation of many as he outlasted sitting senators, former governors and other lifelong politicians as political newcomer. Yang has never held an elected position, yet generated a strong following that carried him through multiple Democratic debates.

His departure further winnows the Democratic field, once historic for the number of minority contenders.

Read more about his political journey here.

8:01 p.m.: Updates with up to 14% of expected vote reporting, Sanders is leading the race at this point

With up to 14% of expected vote reporting, as of 8:00 p.m. ET, Bernie Sanders is currently leading with 28%, followed closely behind by Pete Buttigieg, 22%, and Amy Klobuchar, 20%, who are vying for second place.

ABC News is unable to make a projection in the New Hampshire in the Democratic primary. Sanders is leading the race at this point, followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Biden and Warren are vying for fourth and fifth place.

Here’s how the entire Democratic field is faring, with 14% of expected vote reporting:

Sanders 28%Buttigieg 22%Klobuchar 20%Warren 9%Biden 9%Steyer 4%Gabbard 3%Yang 3%

Most of the vote comes from north country, the state’s northern tip, representing more rural parts of the state. Some votes are beginning to trickle in from Concord, Dover and Manchester.

ABC News Kendall Karson and Quinn Scanlan reported.

8:00 p.m.: Older voters, moderates and those looking for a candidate to unite the county: ABC News analysis

Based on preliminary analysis of New Hampshire primary exit polls, older voters, moderates and those looking for a candidate to unite the county aided Amy Klobuchar in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, all at Joe Biden’s expense. Bernie Sanders held on to younger and strongly liberal voters, and, as in the Iowa caucuses last week, Pete Buttigieg demonstrated appeal across a range of groups in preliminary exit poll results.

Whatever divided these voters, they were united in one regard: a remarkable 81 percent described themselves as “angry” about the Trump administration.

Backing someone who can unite the country was one of the top two attributes of concern, and Klobuchar won 31 percent support in that group, essentially even with Buttigieg, at 29 percent. Preliminary results also found Klobuchar prevailing among seniors and running well – again with Buttigieg – among moderates.

Klobuchar, 59, and Buttigieg, 38, also benefitted from their comparative youth. With Sanders, Biden and Elizabeth Warren in their 70s, two in 10 voters said candidate age was an important factor in their vote, and six in 10 of them backed Klobuchar or Buttigieg. Further, Klobuchar won 30 percent of those who called the most recent ABC News debate important in their decision, and she and Buttigieg roughly split those who made their choice in the campaign’s closing days.

Sanders, for his part, produced another strong performance among younger voters – not just under 30, but up to age 44 – and those who called themselves very liberal. He ran well but did not dominate among “somewhat” liberals, and fell back among moderates.

In contrast with Klobuchar, Sanders won voters seeking a candidate who can “bring needed change” as well as those looking chiefly for one who “cares about people like me.” Among his best groups were the nearly six in 10 voters who back a government run, single-payer health care system. His support among those voters was triple that of Elizabeth Warren, another champion of a single-payer approach.

Sanders also won handily, with 37 percent, among those chiefly seeking a nominee who “agrees with you on major issues.” But many more voters were focused instead on the candidate who can beat Donald Trump, and there Sanders’ support fell by half.

A similar result came in a question asking whether the next president should return to Barack Obama’s policies or pursue a more liberal approach. Voters divided about evenly – with Sanders soaring among those looking for more liberal policies, but cratering among those favoring for a return to the Obama era.

Buttigieg collected votes across an array of groups, much the same as in his top-two finish in the Iowa caucuses last week. Preliminary results found him running a distant second to Sanders among 18- to 29-year-olds (a poor group for Klobuchar), yet also second to Klobuchar among seniors (a poor group for Sanders). Buttigieg also did notably well with better-off voters, winning about three in 10 of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more.

ABC News’ Polling Unit Director Gary Langer reported.

8 p.m. ET: ABC News projects that Trump will win the New Hampshire Republican primary, based on analysis of the exit polls and the vote so far.

ABC News’ Polling Unit Director Gary Langer reported.

8:00 p.m.: ABC News cannot project a winner of the NH Democratic primary.

Based on analysis of the exit polls and the vote in so far, we can say that Sanders is leading while Buttigieg and Klobuchar are vying for second. Biden and Warren are vying for fourth and fifth place in the NH Democratic primary.

7:37 p.m. ABC News exclusive: Don Jr blasts Buttigieg

AMHERST, N.H.—A confident Donald Trump Jr told ABC News in an exclusive interview that he believes his father, President Donald Trump, will be the big winner tonight “much like Iowa,” and called former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg “the NASCAR driver of the Democrat party sponsored by every billion you can imagine.”

“I think much like Iowa, Donald Trump is going to win tonight. That’s the one thing I can pretty much assure everyone of. It’s been incredible to go around the state again, to be back here now vs 2016, we have a team, we have people, we have enthusiastic people who have seen the president deliver the things that he was promising back then. So it’s the difference between maybe he could do it and hey, he’s actually done it. The energy has been totally through the roof. It’s been awesome.”

ABC News’ Will Steakin reported.

7:02 p.m. Pete Buttigieg responds to Michael Bloomberg “You don’t xerox people.”

In an exclusive interview with ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg responded to new reports about Michael Bloomberg’s controversial stop-and-frisk policy, saying “It’s problematic.” “There’s certainly tremendous racial bias in the way that stop and frisk has played out. And I’m not gonna — I’ll leave it to others to characterize Mayor Bloomberg.”

“Any law enforcement strategy that seems to regard people as profile rather than as human beings, especially seeing how this has disproportionately impacted black and brown Americans is something that just has no place in an equitable future,” he said. “You don’t xerox people. And it’s upsetting to hear that kind of language.”

ABC News’ Justin Gomez reported.

7 p.m. Meet the voters who cast the 1st NH primary ballots of 2020

North Country is a stretch of rural New Hampshire without government services — there’s no trash pickup, and residents dig their own wells — and the nearest hospital at which to see a specialist could be hours away.

Voting booths here have been barns and laundry rooms and bedrooms and even dining rooms.

They opened at midnight on Tuesday. Read more about the community here.

ABC News’ Chris Donato reported.

6:31 p.m. ABC News partner FiveThirtyEight is up with their live blog

ABC News partner FiveThirtyEight is up with their live analysis blog.

Welcome to New Hampshire primary night!! Hopefully, we’ll actually get results tonight in a timely fashion (looking at you, Iowa).

A crew of FiveThirtyEighters has been here on the ground in New Hampshire since the debate on Friday, and we’ve been busy covering candidate events and hitting the campaign trail (and maybe a tattoo parlor) ever since.

Our primary forecast is frozen. We won’t update it with any new data, including polls, until all the results from New Hampshire are it. In New Hampshire, our forecast suggests Sanders is likely to win the most votes, with a 2 in 3 shot. Buttigieg has about a 3 in 10 chance of winning the most votes. The likelihood for the other 2020 candidates to finish first tonight is low.

Check out Nate Silver’s piece on 28 scenarios for how things could shake out in New Hampshire and beyond — but remember that whoever finishes in second or third place could capture a lot of media attention, too, depending on the margin. For instance, a strong second-place finish by Buttigieg could keep him viable, and a second-place finish by Warren or Klobuchar could jumpstart either one of their campaigns.

6 p.m. Democratic voters making last-minute decisions.

About 48% of Democratic primary voters said they made up their minds about their chosen candidate either on Tuesday or within the last few days, with 16% deciding today, according to preliminary results from the New Hampshire primary exit poll.

About 59% of Democratic primary voters said they don’t think Trump’s impeachment made a difference in his chance of being re-elected, and about 64% of Republican primary voters said they think it helped his chances.

Turnout among conservatives is at a record-high in the GOP primary, with about 81% labeling themselves as conservatives, up from the previous record of 71% in 2016. About 61% of voters in the Democratic contests are liberals, according to the preliminary exit polls.

About 83% of GOP voters say they support building a wall “along the entire U.S. border with Mexico,” and about 88% say Trump has mostly kept his campaign promises.

ABC News’ Polling Unit Director Gary Langer reported.

5:15 p.m. Turnout among independents and liberals is running high.

Turnout among these two groups may hold the key to the Democratic primary, according to preliminary results from the New Hampshire primary exit poll.

About 45% of voters in the early results are independents, compared to 40% in 2016, when independents boosted Sanders to an overwhelming victory in New Hampshire, winning 73% of their votes versus Hillary Clinton.

PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidates participate in the Democratic presidential primary debate in the Sullivan Arena at St. Anselm College on February 07, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidates participate in the Democratic presidential primary debate in the Sullivan Arena at St. Anselm College on February 07, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

On the issues, about 58% of voters said they support a single government health plan for all Americans, matching to about 57% in the Iowa caucuses, and about 37% called health care the most important issue for their vote, according to the preliminary results from the exit polls.

ABC News’ Polling Unit Director Gary Langer reported.

5:15 p.m. Here’s the state of play in New Hampshire so far.

Under pressure to excel in the Granite State amid a fiercely competitive race, many candidates have camped out in the state since early last week, spending much time openly criticizing their rivals’ records and experience.

PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg greets supporters outside a polling station at Broad Street Elementary School, Feb. 11, 2020 in Nashua, N.H. (Win Mcnamee/Getty Images)
PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg greets supporters outside a polling station at Broad Street Elementary School, Feb. 11, 2020 in Nashua, N.H. (Win Mcnamee/Getty Images)

Only eight days after the contest in Iowa — caucuses which were thrown into turmoil due to “inconsistencies” in reporting results — two front-runners have emerged.

The state Democratic Party ultimately projected former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg the winner of the caucuses Sunday night, awarding him two more delegates than his closest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanderssetting up a bitter fight between the two in New Hampshire.

MORE: Surging in the polls, Klobuchar says Trump can’t put himself in voters’ shoes, ‘I can’

While Buttigieg and Sanders battle it out for the top spot in the primary, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden are jockeying for a last-minute boost, as both have found themselves in a tight race for third and fourth place in recent polling.

PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders speaks to the media at a polling station at the McDonough School during the New Hampshire presidential primary election in Manchester, N.H., Feb. 11, 2020. (Mike Segar/Reuters)
PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders speaks to the media at a polling station at the McDonough School during the New Hampshire presidential primary election in Manchester, N.H., Feb. 11, 2020. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Though Biden has seemingly already admitted defeat in New Hampshire — announcing plans to skip out early and head to South Carolina ahead of the Feb. 29 primary.

But New Hampshire is also crowded by eleventh-hour momentum from Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, as well as a slate of lower-tier contenders vying to drain some support from the top two tiers, including Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

Recommended Posts

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

© Foundation for Truth in Journalism, a not for profit corp estb. 2010 ~ Non Partisan Pursuit of Truth®

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service